Although shortages are not quite as widespread as they were in 2021, obtaining lots remains a challenge for many home builders, according to recent results from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) survey. 

In special questions on the May 2025 HMI survey, 64% of single-family builders reported a shortage of lots, with 38% characterizing the supply as low and 26% saying it was very low. This is down slightly from the 67% reported in both 2023 and 2024, and down significantly from the peak of 76% in 2021 (a year after the COVID-19 pandemic). Nevertheless, the shortage percentage is higher than it had been at any time between 1997 (when NAHB first began tracking the number) and 2016.

The current lot shortage seems particularly severe relative to the level of new housing production. Before the historic 2009-2010 trough in housing starts, the share of builders reporting a low or very low supply of lots never exceeded 53% — even in 2005, when starts topped 2 million. However, by 2015, when starts had partially recovered, the share of builders reporting lot shortages unexpectedly climbed to more than 60%, and it has remained there stubbornly ever since.

Over the past three years, the annual starts rate has been consistently under 1.5 million (approximately the long-run average from 1970 through 2000), while the share of builders reporting a low availability of lots has never dipped below 64%.

An inadequate supply of lots adds to the challenges to build homes, especially at the lower end of the price scale, and adversely impacts housing affordability. 

Paul Emrath, NAHB VP of Survey and Housing Policy Research, provides more details in this Eye on Housing post.